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                                                    您所在的位置:化工资讯 > 卓创视点 > 正文
                                                    大秦线电路故障能否带动现货市场上涨?
                                                    卓创资讯 荆文娟 2019-04-10 10:56:16

                                                    [导语]:4月7日开始大秦线进入春季检修期,在此敏感期内,市场上关于大秦线电路故障的消息纷飞,由此带动期货以及现货市场出现小幅波动。

                                                    近日市场上在传各种版本大秦线电路故障的问题,有消息说“大秦线化稍营站供电所故障,目前情况预计在110万吨运量基础上,每日影响10-20万吨运量,处置时间预计10天”。也有消息说“大秦线因张家口供电问题,王家湾供电所16:10停供电,需要越区供电,阳源-涿鹿-化稍营间车流密度减少一半,预计每日运量少50万。工期预计十天,现在路局正在研究方案”。

                                                    自2019年4月7日大秦线检修开始秦港库存由648万吨回落至643万吨,就目前的情况来看,煤炭调入量影响并不大,而2018年大秦线春季检修期内秦港库存由652回落至486.5万吨,累计回落165.5万吨。正常情况下大秦线日发运量维持在125-130万吨的水平,检修期内日发运量大概在105-110万吨左?#19994;?#27700;平,若因供电故障问题在此基础上再减少20万吨或者50万吨,后续港口供应问题又将如何保障?

                                                    卓创认为,大秦线作为主要运煤通道,即便在检修期期间内发生供电故障,但每日减少几十万吨的进港量且?#20013;?#21313;天的可能?#36234;?#23567;。此消息的真实性还需要数据?#26149;?#23454;,具体地要看明后天秦港煤炭的调入量情况。

                                                    受此消息的影响,市场情绪开始出现明显波动,昨晚开始期货价格开始大幅上涨,今?#38556;?#36135;贸易商报价更加坚挺,市场价格出现小幅上扬。现Q5000大卡煤主流报价535-545元/吨,Q5500大卡煤主流报价635-645元/吨。虽然自?#29616;?#24320;始秦港价格出现上扬,但目前下游电厂库存充裕对现货需求有限,导致成交量一般。若大秦线供电故障消息属实,后期煤炭调入量回?#28095;?#26174;,港口煤价上涨或能?#20013;?#20294;调入量回落较小的话,港口煤价上涨乏力,预计此波涨幅不会太大。

                                                     

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