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                                                    您所在的位置:化工资讯 > 石化行业热点 > 正文
                                                    段素萍:一季度芳烃溶剂油需求疲弱 后市或存上涨空间
                                                    卓创资讯 李春燕 2019-04-11 17:24:19

                                                      [导语] 2019年第一季度已经结束,盘点一季度国内芳烃溶剂油市场行情,可以用低迷来形容,春节过后市场行情一直疲弱,商家期待的“春天”并未如期而至。

                                                    图1
                                                       一季度国内重芳烃C10均价在4442元/吨,环比二季度下跌970元/吨或17.92%,同?#28909;?#24180;同期下跌264元/吨或5.6%。国内重芳烃市场行情表现一般,国际油价一季度震荡走高,提振市场心态,春节过后,重芳烃价格连续上调,在3月初涨至高位。3月份受下游需求低迷打压下,价格出现断崖式大幅走低,拖累整体均价水平出现大幅下滑。
                                                    图2
                                                       据卓创统?#30130;?019年一季度芳烃溶剂油企业平均开工率在66.75%,环?#28909;?#24180;第四季度72.58%下跌5.83个百分点,同?#28909;?#24180;同期61.79%上涨4.96个百分点。一季度开工率最低点在春节前夕,国内多数企业装置停工放假,拉低全国开工率。节后,企业陆续恢复生产,带动开工率稳步提升。
                                                    图3
                                                       一季度国内芳烃溶剂油市场行情呈现先涨后跌趋?#30130;?#20197;四甲苯产品为例,一季度四甲苯全国均价5895元/吨,较去年同期5375元/吨上涨520元/吨或9.67%。
                                                       从上图我们可以看到,一季度四甲苯价格上涨表现较为乏力。1月份市场节前备货需求较好,部分下游商?#19968;?#26497;备货,带动场内出货节奏顺畅,部分厂家甚至出现排队等货现象,货源偏紧支撑该时间段四甲苯价格出现集中上涨。而随着临近春节假期,备货需求结束,市场交投氛围冷清,打压四甲苯价格高位回落。
                                                    春节过后,四甲苯价格走?#24179;?#20026;平稳,虽然该时间段国际油价接连上涨,仍难提振市场氛围,需求面低迷,特别是调和油品需求差,对产?#33459;?#26684;利空作用打压价格走势。3月份市场行情?#20013;?#30130;弱,调油需求恢复缓慢,出货节奏滞缓,加之原料重芳烃价格大幅回落,打压3月份四甲苯价格以下行为主。
                                                       虽然目前已经进入四月份,但近期市场需求面依然表现并不理想,调油市场氛围仍显疲弱。国际油价震荡走高,利好部分商家心态,四月份开始市场价格出?#20013;?#24133;上涨迹象,但由于需求?#33459;讯?#20135;?#33459;?#26684;制?#36857;?#20215;格上涨幅度有限。随着气温逐步回升及小长假期需求提振,后期汽油需求有望继续回暖,需求面有望向好发展。因此,卓创预?#30130;?#20108;季度国内芳烃溶剂油市场有望回暖,价格或存一定上行空间。
                                                     

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