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                                                    您所在的位置:化工资讯 > 卓创视点 > 正文
                                                    高开工低利润下 锦纶涨势难度较大
                                                    卓创资讯 巩玉倩 2019-04-12 14:01:16

                                                    [导语] 随着2/3月份市场行情走势上涨,锦纶受上游原材料拉动,跟涨气氛较浓,但又因下游终端市场开机率不高以及染费上涨,各类政策影响下,需求跟进谨慎且?#20521;海?#25972;体市场持谨慎观?#34892;?#24577;。卓创预计,从成本角度来看,4月份检修较多,货紧价高,成本支撑压力增加,锦纶受其影响存有涨价意向;从需求角度来讲,终端纺织企业开工不高下,暂维持刚需,下游客户拿货积极性欠佳,对锦纶需求不旺,尚无利好支撑下,涨价难度较大。整体来看锦纶市场高位僵?#32456;?#29702;居多。

                                                    高开工 低利润

                                                    图 1

                                                    由上图来看,自年后2月份起,锦纶丝市场开工逐渐上升,由75%的开工率上升至90%偏上,场内多数厂家偏满开状态,如锦江科技、恒申、?#26469;鎩?#21326;鼎、亚太、亚星等,仅个别厂家保持7-8成,场内货源供应较为充裕。3月份之前,多数厂家以交接前期订单为主,出货稍好,厂家尚无库存压力,自3月中下旬起,终端市场需求稍显疲软,订单有且多为小单, 场内装置开工始终保持高位,库存水平略有增加趋势,整体市场维持刚需采买。

                                                    锦纶丝利润情况尚不乐观,目前所取的是高速纺切片现货价格,扣除各项费用后,仅有百元利润,多数锦纶厂家表示压力较大。上游原材料市场不乏窄幅探涨,成本逐渐增加下,锦纶丝跟涨意向虽浓,但受困于需求不济,价格暂维持平稳,终端市场拿货情绪不高,场内各方观望气氛较浓,听闻场内不乏有厂家受库存压力较大,低价走货,但量不多。据了解,锦纶产业链中,切片与纺丝利润基本差不多,但己内酰胺利润?#21019;?#21040;3000元/吨以上,可谓占据高位,但行业内此现状暂不会得到改?#30130;?#24314;议业者密切关注。

                                                    终端需求谨慎 开工不高

                                                    图 2

                                                    随着年后市场逐渐?#27492;眨?#32442;织服装企业也逐渐开工,终端市场开机率亦达到了一个高点,但是行业内却也一直受困于招工难,无订单的情况,近几年厂家开工比较谨慎,也比较灵活,订单多时开工高,市场行情不好的保持低位开工,维持正常刚需。目前锦纶丝下游市场开机率基本保持稳定,与去年同期比较基本吻合,但花边市场开机率比去年偏低。截止目前,圆机市场开机率基本保持在5成左右,经编市场开机率在7成左右,花边市场保持在4成,包?#35789;?#22330;维持7成左右。整体来看,市场开工情况尚可,?#23548;市?#27714;仍显谨慎。

                                                    后市展望

                                                    锦纶市场行情走势既受到上游成本端推涨影响,又受到下游终端市场需求限?#30130;?#30446;前处于上下两难状态,多维持刚需。原材料市场震荡波动,涨势?#26469;?#27442;动,但下游市场?#23548;?#25509;盘意向稍显滞缓,锦纶丝厂家走货吃力下,涨价亦不受下游客户所接受。卓创预计,短期内锦纶市场坚守报盘,低价成交不多,整理运行。

                                                     

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