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                                                    您所在的位置:化工资讯 > 卓创视点 > 正文
                                                    焦煤弱稳运行,焦炭略有好转
                                                    卓创资讯 张敏2 2019-04-12 14:22:51

                                                    【导语】进入4月份后,焦煤市场经历前期大跌后逐步企稳,降幅空间收窄。而下游焦炭市场随着贸易环节介入的增多,需求端有所好转,焦化厂有提涨意向,但受制于高开工及高库存影响,及时反弹也会承受一定压力。

                                                    焦煤弱稳运行

                                                    经过3月底4月初的下行后,目前全国焦煤市场继续下行空间收窄,弱稳运行,另外由于下游焦化厂开工维持高位,刚需依然存在,再?#30001;?#21463;前期煤矿事故及山西沁源火灾影响,现山西长治、晋中等地部分煤矿生产尚未完全恢复。山东地区冲击地压煤矿也减量生产,产量偏低,主流煤企库存压力不大,对当地焦煤价格仍有一定支撑。价格方面,现临汾地区主焦煤S0.5,G80出厂含税承兑1580元/吨左右,临汾低硫1/3焦煤出矿含税1340元/吨,临汾高硫1/3焦煤S1.2出矿含税1200元/吨。后期来看,焦煤市场整体有望保持稳中偏弱运行态势,但若焦炭价格难涨,后期焦煤仍承压,目前看上半年基本无反弹希望。

                                                    后期来看,受下游需求偏弱影响,焦煤反弹无力,但考虑?#28966;?#24212;端支撑,继续下行空间也相对有限,若后期焦炭市场?#20013;?#20559;弱并下行,但焦煤也仍会承压。

                                                    焦炭略有好转

                                                    进入4月份后,焦炭现货市场心态逐渐好转,焦炭结束三连跌之后,探涨意愿有所显现。具体分析如下:

                                                    (1)成本端,原本焦化厂寄希望于焦煤大幅让利,以此减亏,虽然焦煤也有?#23548;?#20294;多以地方煤矿?#23548;?#20026;主,主流煤企焦煤价格多以稳为主,其中山东兖矿集团、山西焦煤集团等主流煤企已经明确表示4月不?#23548;邸?#21463;焦煤供应端偏紧大煤企带头稳价影响,后期焦煤继续下行空间有限,因此焦煤来自成本的支撑力度增强。

                                                    (2)贸易环节,进入4月份后,期现投资公司进行期现套利,从现货市场低价积极买货,进而带动了贸易商的市场参与积极性。

                                                    (3)钢厂方面,虽然目前钢厂焦炭库存处于中高位水平,但考虑到4月份钢厂开工率有提升空间,在?#30001;?#38050;厂利润高企,因此暂时放缓了继续打压焦炭的步伐。

                                                    (4)焦化厂方面,焦炭陷入亏损,而成本端支撑力度增强,叠加4月需求稍有好转,焦化厂订单较多,因此目前焦化厂挺价意向?#27493;?#36880;步增强。

                                                    整体看,此波焦炭现货市场心态好转,主要是因为期现投资公司进行期现套利,从现货市场低价积极买货,进而带动了贸易商的市场参与积极性。但目前焦化厂在高开工及钢厂和港口高库存的制约下,反弹高?#28982;?#26377;限,乐观的话会有一轮现货提涨,但连续提涨的可能性不大。

                                                     

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